Accuracy of EIDSS Software Prognosis on CCHF Natural Foci Activity in Kazakhstan

Authors

  • Aizhan S. Esmagambetova Committee of State Sanitary and Epidemiological Surveillance of the Ministry of Health of Kazakhstan, Astana
  • Stanislav V. Kazakov Kazakh Scientific Center of Quarantine and Zoonotic Infections, Almaty
  • Alexey V. Burdakov Black & Veatch, Overland Park, KS
  • Kenes S. Ospanov Scientific Center of Sanitary and Epidemiological Expertise and Monitoring, Almaty
  • Kakimzhan K. Kyraubaev Scientific Center of Sanitary and Epidemiological Expertise and Monitoring, Almaty
  • Erlan B. Sansyzbaev Kazakh Scientific Center of Quarantine and Zoonotic Infections, Almaty
  • Veronika P. Sadovskaya Kazakh Scientific Center of Quarantine and Zoonotic Infections, Almaty
  • Andrey O. Ukharov Black & Veatch, Overland Park, KS

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5210/ojphi.v6i1.5019

Abstract

Based on the actual situation in the CCHF natural foci of Kazakhstan for the first half of 2013, the authors, using EIDSS version 4, evaluated the accuracy of the earlier prognosis of situation development in the CCHF natural foci of Kazakhstan for 2013 (EIDSS Application for CCHF Foci Activity Epi-Analysis and Prediction in Kazakhstan). The prognosis of situation development in 2013 for 11 districts of Kazakhstan (estimated in 2012 as the districts with a high risk of CCHF) proved to be accurate in 90.9% of cases. 

Author Biographies

Aizhan S. Esmagambetova, Committee of State Sanitary and Epidemiological Surveillance of the Ministry of Health of Kazakhstan, Astana

Aizhan S. Esmagambetova is a doctor of the highest category in public health arrangement. She co-authored 32 research papers on the epidemiology and public health; she has participated in different international conferences. Dr. Esmagambetova is the Chairman of the Committee of State Sanitary and Epidemiological Surveillance of the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Stanislav V. Kazakov, Kazakh Scientific Center of Quarantine and Zoonotic Infections, Almaty

Stanislav V. Kazakov received Ph.D. in Medical Science in epidemiology of especially dangerous pathogens from Scientific Center of Hygiene and Epidemiology of the Ministry of Health of Kazakhstan. He has 27 years of experience in the Sanitary-Epidemiological Service of Kazakhstan. He is an author of 92 research papers in epidemiology and public health; active participant in international conferences. He is a deputy director of the Kazakh Scientific Center of Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases of Kazakhstan.

Alexey V. Burdakov, Black & Veatch, Overland Park, KS

Alexey V. Burdakov received Ph.D. in computer science from Bauman MSTU, Moscow, Russia. He has 16 years of experience in creation and implementation of distributed information system including in the disease surveillance fields. He has 25 publications, is an active participant of international conference and symposiums. He currently works for Black & Veatch on creation and deployment of EIDSS, lecturing at the Bauman MSTU and leading research at the Amur State University in Blagoveschensk, Russia.

Kenes S. Ospanov, Scientific Center of Sanitary and Epidemiological Expertise and Monitoring, Almaty

Kenes S. Ospanov is a Doctor of Medical Science in area of especially dangerous pathogens. He is a co-author of 250 research papers on epidemiology and public health; he participated in several international conferences. Dr. Ospanov is the Branch Director of Scientific and Practical Center of Sanitary and Epidemiological Expertise and Monitoring in Astana, which belongs to the Committee of State Sanitary and Epidemiological Surveillance of the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Kakimzhan K. Kyraubaev, Scientific Center of Sanitary and Epidemiological Expertise and Monitoring, Almaty

Kakimzhan K. Kyraubaev is an epidemiologist of the highest qualification category in Department of Especially Dangerous Pathogens of the Scientific and Practical Center of Sanitary and Epidemiological Expertise and Monitoring of the Committee of State Sanitary and Epidemiological Surveillance of the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kazakhstan. He is the author of 82 research papers on the epidemiology of especially dangerous pathogens.

Erlan B. Sansyzbaev, Kazakh Scientific Center of Quarantine and Zoonotic Infections, Almaty

Erlan B. Sansybaev has Ph.D. in the area of epidemiology, microbiology and immunology of especially dangerous pathogens in the Scientific Center of Hygiene and Epidemiology of the Ministry of Health of  Kazakhstan. He is the author of 16 research papers on the epidemiology, microbiology and immunology.  Dr. Sansybaev is the Deputy Head of Laboratory of Natural Foci Virus Pathogens of the Kazakhstani Scientific Center for Quarantine and Zoonotic Infections.

Veronika P. Sadovskaya, Kazakh Scientific Center of Quarantine and Zoonotic Infections, Almaty

Veronika P. Sadovskaya has 14 years of experience in antiplague service.  She is a co-author of 16 research papers on application of GIS-technologies in epidemiology and epizootological surveillance, the author of electronic databases of plague and tularemia in Kazakhstan. Participant of international conferences. Ms. Sadovskaya is the Head of Geographic Information Systems Laboratory of the Kazakhstani Scientific Center for Quarantine and Zoonotic Infections of the Committee of State Sanitary and Epidemiological Surveillance.

Andrey O. Ukharov, Black & Veatch, Overland Park, KS

Andrey O. Ukharov received Ph.D. in computer science from Bauman Moscow State Technical University (Bauman MSTU), Moscow, Russia. Andrey has 8 years of experience in the field of automated control systems, computerized data analysis and application of information technology in veterinary medicine and epidemiology.  He is the author of 15 scientific publications.  Currently Dr. Ukharov works at Black & Veatch developing the EIDSS.

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Published

2014-03-03

How to Cite

Esmagambetova, A. S., Kazakov, S. V., Burdakov, A. V., Ospanov, K. S., Kyraubaev, K. K., Sansyzbaev, E. B., … Ukharov, A. O. (2014). Accuracy of EIDSS Software Prognosis on CCHF Natural Foci Activity in Kazakhstan. Online Journal of Public Health Informatics, 6(1). https://doi.org/10.5210/ojphi.v6i1.5019

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Section

Lightning Talks